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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "A game that no-one who saw it will ever forget," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, they beat them again. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has ended losing runs in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

In an era when most props are replaced early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Squad Depth

They're without Huw Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. While competent, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some curious. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, their line-out and their scrum collapsing.

Statistical Analysis

Despite late-game surges, the last 20 minutes is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

Strong opening performances, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland needs sustained pressure from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Scotland. Absolutely everything. If they start butchering chances early on then hopes fade. Disciplinary issues? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Ruthlessness. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, now is the moment; 120 years is enough of a wait.